Quebec exports badly. The alarm was sounded by Good Finance Bank chief strategist Sean Cole. “The situation in the United States is improving, but our exports are not growing at the same pace, especially in Quebec and Ontario,” the economist said at a conference organized in Montreal by the Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards. Quebec City on January 16th.
According to statistics from the Quebec Institute of Statistics, exports fell by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2013. According to Sean Cole, “The household debt ratio is already too high and mortgage credit is increasing at a faster pace than GDP, he says.
GDP will not increase
If exports do not take off, GDP will not increase and it will become problematic. “
More locally, the US real estate sector has a major impact on the Québec economy. According to an economic study of the institution DesLedalle the US housing market is gradually recovering and could even overcome a rise in interest rates.
Sales of existing homes and new homes have been rising in the United States for a few months and the number of housing starts has averaged 90,665 units since the beginning of 2013 compared to 478,000 units in April 2009, at the height of the crisis.
Residential real estate market
The rise in the residential real estate market in the United States could have a positive impact on Quebec’s economy. US demand could pull up some related sectors such as the forestry and wood products industries. It is no secret that the Canadian economy is very sensitive to the ups and downs of the American economy because 75% of merchandise exports are destined for it. The foreign activity index developed by the Good Finance Bank illustrates this dependence.
The signing last October of a free trade agreement with the European Union seems an attempt to overcome this dependence. Former Prime Minister Robert Bolke is categorical: “We are too dependent on Americans. We must diversify. With only 35 million people, Canada needs opportunities.
In the end, the economic health of Quebec does not only go through the United States, or we are increasingly competing with emerging countries like Mexico and China, but also with other markets. John Lukle, Regional Risk Manager for Eastern Canada at Genworth Financial Canada, recently said at a conference that the recovery will be there.
“Quebec is very dependent on the recovery of the US economy, and we are already seeing this recovery happen as corporate profits have rebounded. 2014 should be a good year for real estate in Quebec with a slightly higher number of transactions, stable key rates, a balanced market and a decrease in sales times. I am even more optimistic for 2015. “That gives a balm to the heart.